The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. r/fivethirtyeight. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Galen speaks with him. Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy 240 views They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Feb. 21, 2023 Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine Feb. 16, 2023 Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis By Galen. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. Saturday, February 25, 2023. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. January 23, 2023 Examined What comes next after Texas school shooting? They consider how much. The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. All. Listen at itun.es/i67M5bV. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. RSS Loading. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. June 2, 2016. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. Galen Druke is the host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. Local news is disappearing across the country. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. gold rush supreme second chance winners. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. I'm Galen Truk. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a signing ceremony for H.R. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. They determine whether we live in a free or repres (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. To mark a year since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. 11:03 AM. All you have to do is click the iTunes button below to subscribe to this podcast. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. heritage commons university of utah. Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. The board of directors voted Friday to accept the resignation of David Held, effective June 1, and will then offer him the same job on . Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. The data behind that evolution is striking. The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. This is the first episode. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week. The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. A message from Martine. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. 450 episodes. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast.